Tuesday, June 30, 2020

summertime and the covid is risin'

My thanks to George Gershwin for the music; my apologies to Dubose and Dorothy Heyward for my altered lyrics.
I take it that most people reading this are familiar with the song, "Summertime", from the American opera, "Porgy And Bess".
If not, you may want to hear the tune once you can sing along with my version.
Go ahead, I'll wait.
It's not like the data for the month of June is going to change.
Sadly.
Okay, ready for the sing-along?
Here we go now... and a one, and a two...

Summertime
and the COVID is easy
Folks are dyin'
and the temperature's high
Your daddy's sick
and your ma's worse than he is
so hush, younger people,
your turn's comin' nigh.

One of these mornin's,
you're gonna rise up coughin'
Then you'll spread your arms
tryin' to get out a sigh
But 'til that mornin',
go act like nothin' can harm you
with Daddy and Mommy
already gone
to the sky.


Oh, trust me, you purty young things, I know you've been cooped up with no one to give you no lovin' since March.
Finally, the doors of the bars and clubs have been thrown wide for a month and you just cain't get enough good lovin' from strangers, can you?
Yee doggie!
You've got the fever -
literally and figuratively -
and you're making sure to spread your supply of SARS-CoV-2 around.
Now worries, there's plenty for everyone!
That industrious little coronavirus is using your own body for its own purposes, making little copies of itself as fast as it can, using your body's own supply of amino acids and your body's own protein factories at the heart of your own cellular metabolism.
In other words, you can spew as much of the virus particles as you want in the spittle and exhalations from your naked face while you flirt and carry on!
Your body will just keep churning out more, per the viral orders, until all your friends can make a gracious supply of their own!
Science, baby, goes on keepin' on, whether you acknowledge it or not!
And here's some science for you:
more than 50 % of COVID-19 cases are now in the 18- to 49-years old age group...
and that percentage is growing by leaps and bounds.
It ain't just for the over-65 crowd any more, people; they have not quite 20% of the cases.
Well, what about those in that group in between, those 50- to 64-year olds?
They only account for 24% of those infected.
And guess what?
Since the growing numbers of infected people are now the under-30 crowd, this is going to look more and more like a young people's disease...
you know, since the math means the percent infected will be skewing to lower ages...
so, good for you!
You've changed the focus away from old folks and onto the younger generation!

My thanks to Mayor Johnson for making face coverings mandatory attire for Savannah.
He's been keeping the faith, and following the science from the start.
Now, after Georgia's numbers have taken to skyrocketing, Governor Kemp is following suit, extending the State of Emergency until August 11.
That means to continue social distancing, everyone.
Plus, no gatherings of more than fifty people.
I do wonder how the Savannah Bananas are going to pull that one off.
I find the logistics of getting 2000 fans through the gate, checking everyone's temperature before allowing admittance, to be a rather daunting proposition.
Plus, the last time I did the math, "2000" is greater than "50".
Even with new math, that's still true, right?
Of course it is.

So... ready for some cold, hard numbers to go along with this intense summer heat?
Let's begin with those lovable five we've seen so often.
This is for the merry month of June, showing clearly the effect of open bars and nightclubs on total cases of infected people.
In fact, our top three contenders - CA, TX, and FL, shown in order of magnitude - have drawn plenty of attention by analyzers nationwide.
Michigan (dark green) seems to be maintaining a slow rise, but Georgia has added more than 30,000 to where it was in May.
That is not a good thing, y'all, but compared to the yellow, purple, and orange, its dark blue is pretty sensible.
Sadly, that appearance is an illusion of that high vertical scale limit.
What say we toss the bad boys for now and ratchet that upper scale limit down from 250,000 to only 90,000, so we can zoom in on the trend for that dark blue one?
Oh, my, now it seems that dear GA has started a more intense upward climb, as of June 22!
Well, at least that can't be blamed on good old Dad.
And just who are these other players on this field?
Well, we've already met PA (light blue) and LA (black bowties), immediately above and below GA.
Then, going downward, we meet newcomers TN (violet circles), AL (spring green), and OK (light orange cross-ties).
As the evidence shows, Pennsylvania and Oklahoma are the most level in their increases, but I'll be curious of any changes in another week when it'll be two weeks since rally time.
Tennessee and Alabama are trying to follow in Georgia's steps, but they haven't managed to catch up... well, not yet.

Let's change up and look at the rates for these ten states.
So, now the Y-axis is number of infected people per 100,000 of population.
Last month, Michigan was the leader of the pack, with Georgia hovering above the bottom three.
Adding Louisiana made everyone look like posers, with it topping 1200 people infected out of every 100,000 in the state.
Michigan is still beating Pennsylvania, but Georgia's end of month leap has whupped both of them...
and now has a curve mimicking that of California....
but so does Alabama.
Oh, you can't see that spring green here?
That's because it lies directly beneath Georgia's dark blue, with both having almost 800 COVID-19 cases for each 100,000 people living there.
Yeah, that's pretty scary news for my stepmom and her grandkids.
Tennessee is lagging behind us, but still has a higher rate than those of CA, Fl, and TX, the terrible trio still huddled up close.
Only Oklahoma has a lower rate than anyone else, with less than 400 people infected out of every 100,000.
Ooooh.
Aaaah.
No wonder it beat out Georgia and was selected as a rally site.

Now, just for the sake of completion, I'll take a quick look at those seven-day totals of newly infected people, as I did earlier this month.
The terrible trio top the charts with Florida - yes, Florida - having almost fifty thousand new cases of COVID-19 in one week.
California and Texas tied up second place, with more than forty thousand new cases of COVID-19 in one week.
Honestly, you couldn't pay me to venture to any of those three.
Sure, I realize it's mostly sum-sum-summertime foolishness going on at any body of water - heck, at any body - with a tiki hut, but... no, thanks, I'll pass.
I really miss driving to Daytona, I really do.
(Sigh.)
The other states are all clustered up on the bottom, bouncing around with their measly five thousand (or less) new cases of COVID-19 per week... but that's every week, with no slacking off.
Oh, did I say "all" the other states?
I meant, "all except Georgia".
As seen in the trend for total cases of COVID-19 infection, Georgia's seven-day totals of newly infected took a dramatic turn for the worse last Monday... and has not yet relinquished its relentless climb.
On that date, Georgia had 7900 new cases for the past seven days.
Yesterday, Georgia almost doubled that number, having a stupefying 13,401 cases of newly infected people during a mere seven days.
Wow.
You know how many Montana had?
You're gonna laugh, you really will.
Well, if you don't cry.
Montana had a total of 250 new cases of COVID-19 for the week ending June 29.
That state is looking more and more like a destination to me...
at least in the warmer months.

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