Monday, June 8, 2020

Sha oobie, shattered, shattered

All this chitter-chatter, chitter-chatter, chitter-chatter 'bout
Shmatta, shmatta, shmatta,
I can't give it away on 7th Avenue
This town's been wearing tatters (shattered, sha ooobie
shattered)
Work and work for love and sex
Ain't you hungry for success,
success, success, success
Does it matter? (shattered)
Does it matter?
Pride and joy and greed and sex
That's what makes our town the best
Pride and joy and dirty dreams and still surviving on the street
And look at me,
I'm in tatters, yeah
I've been battered,
what does it matter
Does it matter, uh-huh
Does it matter, uh-huh,
I'm shattered

[Songwriters: Keith Richards /
Mick Jagger
Shattered lyrics © Sony/ATV Music Publishing LLC]
As soon as I saw the data, this song from the Rolling Stones leapt to mind.
The top graph shows the total number of infected people in New York, state and city combined, from the Friday of Memorial Day weekend up to today.
For those keeping tabs, that weekend marked two weeks from Mother's Day.
I guess folks there took to heart the memo of what to give Mom, because the numbers had jumped to just over 355,000 people infected by SARS-CoV-2.
Now, it's two weeks past Memorial Day weekend, that official start of throngs on the beaches, and the number of people with COVID-19 now hovers above 380,000... and still it climbs.
To paraphrase Mick, "Don't you know the infected rate is going up, up, up, up, up"?
Well, it is.
That's what the second graph has: the rate of infection per 100,000 population.
But, hey, what's that strange jump downward all about?
Well, kiddos, the state of New York, in a bid for the appearance of propriety, wiped its collective hands of that stuff and nonsense going on in city of New York.
That may have looked good on paper, as it essentially more than halved the number of infected (and subsequently made me do math to obtain the data needed for that top graph).
That separation of state and city also dropped the rate of infection from almost 1900/100,000 (akin to the New Jersey values) down to about 1500/100,000, which is more in line with the rates for Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, and Washington, DC.
But, as my ex likes to say, the thing is, here's the thing.
That rate of infection for the state is still increasing, no matter the parlor trick engaged.
Meanwhile, as a result of that sleight of hand, the Big Apple's rate of infection jumped to almost 2400/100,000.
That one city still beats out every state -
I'll just let Mick and Keith take over.
"To live in this town you must be tough, tough, tough, tough, tough!
You got rats on the West Side
Bed bugs uptown
What a mess
this town's in tatters,
I've been shattered
My brain's been battered,
splattered
all over Manhattan.
"

Damn.
I really love New York City, too, so that makes this deceit especially sad.
I won't be tracking its numbers anymore.
But what about my regular players, they still with me?
Oh, you know it, baby!
But I await the day when the state of California votes Los Angeles out of its team line-up.
The precedent has been set, unfortunately.
When they follow that lyin' ass trail, they're off my roster.

So, the last time the boys came up to bat, we were two weeks past Mother's Day and the beach crowds and barbeque parties had gone and done their things...
and now we're two weeks past that.
So, this is the data from 22 May through today.
Of course the numbers of infected increased, how could they not?
Everyone was partying just as hard as they could, trying to catch up to those in the northeast!
California vaulted from 90,000 infected people to almost 140,000,
which is less than half of NY's combined total cases, but more than twice the stats of any of my other players.
Indeed, this may be the last time they come up to the plate.
As for Texas (purple), Michigan (green), and Florida (orange you glad I didn't say banana), those three are keeping pretty tight together these past two weeks.
Then, there's Georgia, its blue line creeping upward like the rest - by about 10,000 cases of infected people in this time period - but maintaining its bottom position.
Great, just great.
No decreases anywhere in sight.
Next!
Why not look at the rates of infection, like I did for New York?
Well, I had told someone I would start tracking that and I did, on May 22, that Friday of Memorial Day weekend.
Two weeks later, I have enough to show trends, so...
here ya go.
I have no idea what was up with Michigan's data that first weekend, but at least the state finally got it figured out.
Still, their rate of infected per 100,000 population is horrid and had a wicked little jump today.
My sweet Georgia, which had been at the bottom, has the next highest rate of the five, only beat out by the more populous Michigan.
California, Florida, and Texas are down in a huddle together, like they're working on their next play.
We'll see in a few weeks what gambit they've chosen.
Maybe one of them can come up with a pass downfield.
What else do I have?
Oh, yes, the ploy used by our Governor when he set the opening date.
These are the seven-day sums of people newly infected, starting with the totals on May 22, as in the other graphs here.
In other words, that first value reflects the total number of new cases recorded for the seven days between May 16 and May 22.
It may look like a hot mess, but let me point out two things.
First, Georgia has the least wiggle in its values.
Now, I'm not commending it for having an average of five hundred new cases per day, but, compared to the others, it's the most like a roller coaster for tots.
The other four are clearly more scary rides meant for teens and older, especially with those neck-snapping increases for Florida and Michigan over the past three days.
Ouch!!!
Honestly, I'm ready to get off any time, even though I'm on the baby ride.

2 comments:

Jeff said...

6/10 6:29 am
email

Jeff McDermott

That's my favorite Stones album.

mi amiga Barbara said...

6/10 12:21 AM
email

Barbara Nixon

I tell my students we study statistics so we won’t be misled by them.
Seems like you were paying attention in class.
There are so few people who can do the math.
I really wish I could hear the lyrics of songs.
I hear the music but can’t distinguish the lyrics.
There are a lot of poets out there in my generation other than Bob Dylan.
It seems poet equals prophet as so many lyrics are so true today.