crazy mad panic attack

Wow.

I evidently cannot immerse myself into the CDC website anymore.

After about three hours there earlier, looking at various graphs of COVID data for the ten states I once monitored, I thought I was okay... but I was not.

It greatly disturbed me to see those curves rise again for daily and weekly cases of people who had been infected by SARS-CoV-2, people who then developed the Coronavirus Infectious Disease, people in Georgia, Florida, Michigan.

 

This one is for Georgia, with number of cases in August - as classrooms reconvened in person - on a par with the great madness of earlier this year.

Here is the data for Michigan, which seems to mirror the curves of Georgia, but with some really high variations for the data - with peaks of more than 15,000 per day - since school began in the fall.

For Florida, the case is more dire, with the peak for the number of new cases at school time - more than 20,000 per day - more than surpassing any other time since the pandemic began.

It's certainly clear when spring break occurred this year, isn't it?

The graph for California is here, making it obvious what a difference it makes when the majority of the population gets vaccinated against this virus.

Sure, their numbers of daily new cases are still more than 5,000 per day, but, considering their huge population, that's not bad.

California looks especially nice compared to the graph for the number of cases in the USA as a whole.

The people across the country need to study what that the population of that West Coast state is doing differently and try to emulate its good example.

 

After giving a good hard look at those graphs, comparing the current effects of the continuing pandemic for those states, I then started checking out their death rates, and then studying their vaccination rates, and I thought I was okay... but I was not.

How do I know I was not?

I stopped to have lunch and watch a little tv, as I tend to do about 5 PM.

Then, when I rose from the couch to take my plate into the kitchen, I nearly fell down because I was so dizzy.

It was as if I was suddenly very drunk, with the room seeming to whirl around me.

So I sat back down... and that's when I noticed I was having trouble focusing and I could hardly take deep breaths.

Was I having a heart attack?

No, there was no pain in my jaw or shoulder.

Then, feeling the need to pee, I went to rise again... and had to hold onto the wall to make it to the bathroom without falling from the dizziness, and then hold the wall again to make it back to the couch.

So... very... dizzy.

It was as if I had taken something with codeine in it.

Then I recognized I was having a panic attack.

After all, this is not the first time this has happened over the last few years.

What to do?

I laid back on the couch, head on a pillow, feet up, and stayed still for the next hour, letting Steve Harvey's voice calm me during the two episodes of "Family Feud".

I could feel the tension leaving me.

So, what had brought the panic attack on?

Well, it was not solely due to the graphs.

I've been getting increasingly twitchy about the reception scheduled for tomorrow night, where I will be one of eighty people gathered in the ballroom of the American Legion on Bull Street to eat and drink and dance in celebration of Jim and Lauren's wedding.

I have no idea who all will be there, but I can guarantee that I will not know most of them.

Since March of 2020, the most people I have been around was at Chelsea's wedding last month... but that was all open-air, with good spacing, and with me being around mostly people I already know.

That will not be the case tomorrow.

If not for my pledge to provide a ride for Carolyn, I'd probably back out.

However, I don't feel that I have that option, as it would leave her with no means of getting there, and I know she has been looking forward to it for two months.

Actually, giving her that ride is also a stressor, as she is always sick with her chronic bronchitis and I don't want to catch that, either.

Sigh.

At least I recognize what my problem is.

Now, to continue having a restful evening...

and look forward to seeing old friends again tomorrow.

the extraterrestrials are here

And who would have thought they'd be so tiny?

And who would have thought they'd be so deadly?

And who would have thought they'd not be humanoid?

After all, "Star Trek" in the 1960's, and "Star Wars" in the 1970's, indoctrinated our popular culture with the idea of diversity throughout the universes, with most intelligent life looking remarkably like the peoples of Earth.

But what about Tribbles?

They were definitely not shaped like humans.

Those "space bunnies" were fluffy and lovable and capable of amazing antics.

Plus, they reproduced even faster than Gremlins and didn't require water or late-night snacking to do so.

(smile)

But I digress: the topic is extraterrestrials.

(Sure, "alien" is shorter, but that word has been corrupted by xenophobes on this planet and is no longer suitable for talking of life beyond Earth.)

And just what has brought this top of mind this morning, before I even get out of bed, and before I even have coffee?

Two things, actually.

The second happened last night.

The physicist and I were to dine at The Noodle Bowl, but that restaurant is no more. Fortunately, it's down the strip from another place we like, and we passed a barbershop along the way. That led to talk of such places and his having recently had a stylist besot with the idea of UFO sightings and such. Then, on the way back to our cars at the other end of the strip, the topic of COVID arose and I found out he'd lost a former girlfriend to death by that dread disease.

Wow.

The first thing was the week before.

Amy was talking about the posts I'd written last year about COVID madness and how much all in her office had enjoyed my graphs and style.

Then we started on the topic of booster shots and the new variation of the virus and I went into full-tilt boogie educator mode, even explaining about the function of the spike protein and likening it to the gangplank of a spaceship.

As I explained to them, a virus is like a marauding extraterrestrial, more akin to Cyborgs than any other type of life, and parts of us are assimilated to fashion new and improved forms of their being.

In other words, the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is building a better gangplank, to gain faster and easier access into our cells, and it is doing so by simply acting, not thinking.

This virus, like all viruses, has two goals: to survive and to propagate.

Failure on our part to build proper defenses against it - i.e., vaccination of all people, wearing of facial protection by all, use of safe distancing by all, vigilant washing of hands by all - allows it to confiscate amino acids with more desirable binding properties from our bodies to modify itself.

Those of us that are infected by the coronavirus, that develop Coronavirus Infectious Disease, and that survive to tell the tale are the very ones that are getting assimilated into the building of a better gangplank.

That's a sobering thought.

Time for coffee.

the variants of fall

Between September 1st and October 1st of 2020, four mutations of the SARS-CoV-2 novel coronavirus were determined to be the causes of the increases in COVID infections and deaths and became classified as variants of concern.

The work was done by researchers investigating changes in the structure of the spike protein, the component of the virus by which it gains access to our cells.

The first mutation of concern was the Beta variant, also known as B.1.351, was first detected in South Africa, where it rapidly became the dominant strain.

By week's end, another mutation of concern, the Delta variant (or B.1.617.2) was the one rapidly filling India's hospitals with dying patients.

By the middle of September, the Alpha variant (or B.1.1.7) showed up as the dominant mutation and cause of increased, and more deadly, COVID cases in the United Kingdom.

Then, in October 2020, Japan was the prey for a fourth mutation of concern, the Gamma variant (also known as P.1).

What was it about these variants that had enhanced the virus's ability to spread more quickly and result in more deadly and serious onsets of COVID?

Among the changes were these three: K417N, E484K, N501Y.

Stay with me, okay?

The numbers refer to placement in the spike protein's primary structure, which is the order of amino acids in the molecule.

The first letter is the amino acid which had been there; the last letter refers to the amino acid now substituted into its place.

Each amino acid has characteristics (acidity, basicity, hydrophilic, hydrophobic, ionic), based on the identity of its unique side chain, that affect its interactions with other portions of the molecule, leading to the tertiary structure of the protein.

That tertiary structure governs how the protein interacts with cells in the human body.

Now, back to those three mutations.

In all three instances, the amino acid is changed into one with very different side chains, making it very different in chemical character at those sites.

So, why would that matter?

All three changes are in the receptor binding site on the spike protein.

Let me emphasize the key message.

All three changes are in the receptor binding site on the spike protein.

That's what makes these variants so scary.

These mutations on this protein allow the virus faster access to the replicating sites in our cells, allowing faster build-up of the invading virus, which enables faster progression of the virus from infection to lung-killing status.

That means someone who has been infected by any one of these variants of concern will go from asymptomatic to full-blown COVID in much less than the two weeks standard.

Remember this diagram of the need for keeping a congregation of alligators always at hand?

That topmost line shows that a single infected person, not practicing social distancing, can infect two or more withing 5 days of falling victim to the original SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Those 2, in turn, infect another 2 each in five days, with the spread growing exponentially as the days go on.

With these four new variants of the virus, a single infected person can now come into contact, and infect, five people instead of the standard two people, leading to greatly increased numbers of people hospitalized and dying as each of those five in turn infect five others.

Let me break it down this way.

Before, the numbers increased in this pattern every five days: 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, with 64 people within a month's time.

Now, the numbers increase at a faster pace every five days: 1, 5, 25, 125, 625, 3125, ending up as 15626 within a month.

That's terrifying.

So is this table.

This is only the data acquired by studying the primary structure of the spike protein in those who tested positive for COVID.

The first vertical bar is for the first two weeks in May of this year and shows that the vast majority of infections that month were from the Alpha variant (though it is important to note that virus was not the only one causing COVID in those patients).

Each bar represents data collected during a subsequent two-week span.

All data reflects a variety of coronavirus variants are at fault for the COVID infections.

However, the highlighted dark-orange areas are for those people who had the Delta variant, and those are the dominant strain, even surpassing the percentage of cases attributed to the Alpha variant in the beginning of May.

 

Savannah has already resumed mask-wearing by all in public places.

Yes, even those fully vaccinated are to wear masks.

I urge everyone to do so.

And, if not yet vaccinated, please get that shot.

The United States needs to reach herd immunity, and that won't happen without more people stepping up to serve the needs of their country.

Please.

a letter to my cousin lynn

Dear cousin Lynn,

You wrote the following on facebook:
Lynn L.
"PS... I want one person to describe in detail the “science” of it all!
I’m a college educated person who learned how to read scientific articles and be able to discern the the fact from the fiction!"

As no one else had stepped up to the podium, please allow me to do so.
Here is the science. The vaccine contains the mRNA which is encoded with the identity of the protein spike that SARS-CoV-2 uses to inject into our cells. 

That piece of mRNA allows our cells to manufacture copies of that protein so that our immune system can recognize and attack that protein. 

That means that the next time our immune system encounters that protein in our body (as in when the virus has invaded), our immune system is ready for it and can counteract, to keep it out of our cells.

Now, if our body is invaded by a large number of virus entities, then our immune system is not able to block all of them, which can result in a mild case of COVID (COronaVirus Infectious Disease). 

However, thanks to the vaccine having prepped our body for such an attack, we would not end up on a ventilator fighting for breath on our way to death. 

Those who do not have the vaccine have that scenario as a very real possibility in their future. So, I advise everyone to get the vaccine. 

Death by coughing is a painful way to leave this Earth.

Please bear in mind that I have a PhD in Analytical Chemistry. 

Now retired, I have 24 years of teaching general, organic, and biochemistry to future nurses, rad techs, and others in the medical field.
I have researched this very question, as well as attended some excellent lectures on this new type of vaccine. 

Heretofore, all vaccines worked by injecting the actual virus, usually in a dead or deactivated form, into the body so the body's immune system would recognize the actual intruder.
The vaccines being used to prevent COVID are a new type, using mRNA to allow our own body to make JUST THE SPIKE PROTEIN, not the entire virus. 

(You may recall from biochemistry that mRNA contains the recipe for a single protein, thus our body contains many different mRNA molecules for building the many different proteins (hemoglobin, collagen, keratin, insulin, to name but a few) that our body needs all the time.)

Because we are not exposed to the entire COVID-causing virus, the new type of vaccine cannot assure us complete immunity from that disease. 

However, this new type of vaccine does provide our immune system with a preemptive measure by allowing a recognition as "enemy" for any entity with that spike protein attached to it.

Forewarned is forearmed, right? Getting the vaccine is the best way to become forearmed against SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus-2).

1 year of coronavirus, in graph

At the beginning of April of 2020, finding myself becoming increasingly alarmed at bare, naked, numbers being bandied about in the news and needing some sense of perspective about what those numbers meant, I began graphing, looking for patterns, looking at trends.

I initially was doing so for just four states, interested in watching for a spike in April after the Easter/Passover holiday. Relieved, there was not one two weeks after that event.

I eventually settled on ten states to monitor on a regular basis, several times weekly, gathering data through the CDC website as well as those states' DPH sites.

At the end of nine months, I posted a review of the presence of COVID-19 in this country.

At that time, there was an alarming rise in the total number of cases of people infected by the SARS-CoV-2 virus in all ten of the states, with the most horrific being for California, Texas, and Florida.

Now, as I study the years' worth of data I have accumulated, there is a pattern emerging.

Following each steep and sustained rise in number of infections, a plateau appears.

That period of slow, steady growth in numbers occurs for a period of months, then another steep and sustained rise takes over.

That second sharp increase has reached another plateau for most of the states, except for Michigan and Pennsylvania. For those two, the pattern is lagging, with their steep rise occurring while the other states have a relative lull in the action.

June of 2020 was the month of that initial steepening, with it finally ceasing its reach for the stars and starting to level out by the end of August. Well, mostly, with a little variation between the states. CA, TX, and FL have certainly led the charge, whereas MI and PA have dawdled behind a few weeks each time.

So, what is to be made of all of this at this juncture in time?

In three months, we're due for another climb.

That's my forecast.

Hopefully, another 175,000,000 Americans will be fully vaccinated before that.

That's the minimum number still needed to get us to herd immunity.

I've done my part, completing my second dose one week ago.

By this time next week, I can be regarded as fully protected from death by coughing.

Sure, I can still get infected by the coronavirus...

but not so badly that I would need hospitalization and might die.

i thank You, God.

I already know many of my friends and family have been vaccinated with at least the first dose of the two-shot series of either Pfizer or Moderna, being able to mark them safe soon from death by coughing.

i thank You, God.

Soon, I hope to be able to count all I know as fully vaccinated.

What a wonder that will be!

Soon, I hope.

feeling blessed...and safer, thanks to science

On Tuesday, I received the second shot of the Pfizer vaccine.

So far, so good!

Then again, I am a scientist, so I knew how to minimize any reactions.

 

First, I increased my protein intake for two days prior to the shot in the arm.

I wanted to make sure my amino acid pool was full!

After all, it's difficult to build antibody proteins if the pool level is low.

I knew that those proteins, and others, would need to be constructed if I were to rendered safe from severe COVID infection.

The vaccine to prevent death by coughing contains messenger-ribonucleic acid, mRNA; I know that molecule to contain a recipe to build a specific protein.

(Hooray for 24 years of teaching biochemistry!

There are two other types of ribonucleic acid, rRNA and tRNA, but they do not contain recipes for building proteins.

The tRNA transports the individual amino acids to the protein-building site in the cell.

The rRNA is the key that turns on the protein-building site in the cell.)

This particular mRNA molecule is encoded to build the spike protein of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, the part of that beast that is able to delve into human cells and lead to massive infection, eventually leading to death by coughing (i.e., COVID).

(It is important to note that the structure of that spike protein has been known since February 2020. Knowing that primary structure, which is the order of the amino acids in the entire spike protein molecule, was the start of developing a vaccine to fight the coronavirus.

In a manner akin to having a fancy dish at a restaurant and recreating that meal at home, it is first necessary to know the ingredients of the dish (which amino acids).

Then, as any good chef will attest, the order in which those ingredients are combined makes the difference between a good meal and a fabulous meal.

That's how a recipe is developed, in accordance to the order of combining ingredients.

The mRNA molecule is that recipe, formed by first listing the order of the amino acids needed, then referring to the Genetic Code table for the order of nucleotides required to make that recipe a reality.

The magic of this vaccine, as well as the one developed by Moderna, is that it contains this mRNA, to build that protein, without the rest of the coronavirus being present.

This incredible bit of mRNA acts as a master chef in the kitchen of our cells, cooking up that spike protein and then releasing it into our bloodstream.

Bwah ha ha!
That's when our immune response kicks in.

Recognizing that the protein is not a usual resident in our body, our immune system reacts to the stranger-danger (antigen), tagging and bagging it with an antibody and thereby denying it entry to our cells.

Hooray for lymphocytes!

Specifically, hooray for B cells!

Hooray for the decades of science research that enabled the development of these two vaccines!

The 1950's provided the double-helix structure of deoxyribonucleic acid, more commonly known as DNA.

The structure of mRNA molecules became known in the 1960's, as well as the correlation between that structure and the order of amino acids in the proteins constructed.

(Bear in mind that each mRNA serves as the 'recipe' for one specific protein. Thus many mRNA molecules are required to build all the proteins (hemoglobin, progesterone, collagen, insulin, immunoglobulin, lactase, myosin, etc.) needed by the body. All mRNA molecules required are built from DNA during transcription, so that means DNA can be thought of as the master cookbook with all the recipes.)

Genetic engineering came along in the 1970's, with the development of the first recombinant DNA molecule, and truly served as the basis for the vaccines used to combat the current coronavirus and its variants.

That work led to research in the late 1980's on the DNA in simple life forms, such as bacteria, with the first insight into clustered, regularly interspaced, short, pallindromic repeats (now called CRISPR) which arose as an immune response toward an invading phage.

(Nice to know invaders don't just go after us higher forms of life, isn't it?)

In the 1990's that work then led into genome editing, which, simply stated, involves the changing of DNA by insertion or removal of portions of it.

Enter Emmanuelle Charpentier and Jennifer Doudna, the winners of the 2020 Nobel Prize in Chemistry, based on their 2012 work with genome editing using CRISPR, those DNA bits found in the 1980's in bacteria. They developed a gene-editing tool that has allowed scientists around the world to better resolve genetic mysteries.

Perhaps, one day, cures for each type of cancer can be developed using this methodology!

For now, we have these new vaccines to fight the pandemic which has held the world hostage for well over a year.

Hallelujah!

So... even though these mRNA-enhanced vaccines appeared as if the research had been rushed, in truth the research had been building for decades.

The real trick had been ramping up for mass production of the vaccines.

That feat was accomplished by throwing money at the issue, lots and lots of federal funds for the production and distribution of the vaccines, free of cost, to every red-blooded citizen of the United States that was willing to roll up their sleeve.

Hallelujah!

 

Second, I made sure I was well-rested before the vaccine, and have continued to allow my body to have plenty of sleep.

Why have I done so?

While I sleep is when the body makes all of these proteins that are required to keep me functioning, and now it had new recipes to include.

 

So, more protein and sleep before the shot, more protein and sleep afterward.

The day of the shot I had soreness in my arm near the injection shot, but it wasn't bad.

The shot itself was given in such a tiny needle that I hardly even felt it - truly, I have had mosquito bites that hurt worse!

The day afterward, my arm was tender near the injection area, but only if I touched it.

The shingles shot was much more painful, and red and hot, for almost a week.

Now, three days in, I barely register any pain for this anti-COVID vaccine.

Hallelujah!

Off I go soon to the movies - it's finally Friday!

Even better, there are new movies to be seen!!!

Tonight it'll be Michelle Pfeiffer in "French Exit", about a woman moving off to Paris to finish out her life... tre bien!

Tomorrow, I'm looking forward to "Godzilla vs Kong" and I'm doing it the way it was meant to be: larger than life and rocking the chair in the BigD way!

What about Sunday's movie, to round out my A*List trio at the AMC?

I guess we'll have to wait and see!

It's good to have choices!

Hallelujah!

put on yer easter bonnet, with all the frills upon it

... but forget about any parades.

Seriously.

We're still in a pandemic and, as slowly as vaccinations are occurring, we're likely to stay in pandemic mode for months yet.

Sure, the President is excited that more than 150 million doses of vaccine have gone into arms, and so am I.

But, doing the math, that means, at most, 75 million Americans are fully vaccinated.

At most.

Doing the math, that means, at most, 22% of the USA's population are fully vaccinated.

At most.

More people need to step up and get the vaccine.

Now, folks can even drive up at a mass vaccination center and don't even have to get out of their car or truck or SUV.

More people need to walk the walk, not just talk the talk, of being an American citizen fully invested in making this country better.

It isn't like folks are being asked to roll up their sleeve and donate blood; just roll it up and get a quick little jab from a very tiny needle.

Let's work together to stop the deaths from COVID.

Please.

Okay, how about some graphs to encourage people who are floundering or waffling or just plain being a baby about needles?

(By the way, thousands of people with diabetes use needles daily - daily! - to monitor their glucose levels or administer insulin.)

This graph has the total number of COVID-infected people since the start of the pandemic, concentrating on the first three months of this brand-new year.

As can be seen here, three of the ten states I monitor already had more than a million cases when 2021 dawned. 

In fact, on January 1st, sunny California began the year with more than 2.5 million people who had been infected by SARS-CoV-2 and developed COVID. Now, at the end of this third month, that West Coast state has added another cool million to that sum. That's an additional 1,000,000 cases of infection in not quite 90 days.

How appalling.

Texas and Florida both started out with around 1.5 million infected citizens of their respective states.

Texas has added one million more since then; Florida, thankfully, has not added quite a million, lagging behind by about a quarter-million.

Good for Florida.

Pennsylvania, Georgia, Tennessee, and Michigan each began their 2021 with more than 500,000 cases of people infected by the coronavirus.

Of the four, Pennsylvania is the only one that has doubled its number.

That would be another half-million in less than 90 days.

Georgia and Tennessee have kept close company with their numbers, as if one of them is serving as the pacer for the other in this mad race.

I expect both to pass the million-people mark fairly shortly, with Michigan close behind.

That leaves Alabama, Louisiana, and Oklahoma all at the bottom, all starting just below the half-million, all just above it now.

All total, for these ten states, 2021 began with about nine million people who had been infected; now, that sum is at least twelve million.

For only ten states.

Mind, that's with no major holidays or even nice weather in many of those states.

Now, spring has sprung and Easter and Passover are here.

People are flocking to airports, restrictions are being lifted, and the general mood is one of gaiety and mirth!

Are we to infer that life can return to 'normal'?

Are there no new clouds of cases threatening rain on egg hunts and backyard parties and religious gatherings?

Let's take a look at where not to travel.

How are these ten doing with their cases per 100,000 population?

Well, honestly, like in the above graph, this one shows the order of the states to be the same from January 4th to March 29th, the end dates on which I gathered the data.

Tennessee leads all: it had 9 people infected out of 1000; now, it has 12 people infected out of every 1000.

That 30% increase is seen for all ten over this almost 90-day period.

Ranking them from most dangerous to visit to least, that would be Tennessee, Oklahoma, Alabama, then, Georgia, Texas, Louisiana, Florida, and California, with Pennsylvania and Michigan at the bottom, having at most 8 people of every 1000 having been infected.

So far, the graphs have looked at overall numbers, which include those since all of this began here in the States, with the influence of new cases accumulated.

But what about those new cases?

Well, here are the 7-day totals of new infections, since January 4th of this year up to yesterday, for seven of my ten states.

(I chose not to show California, Texas, and Florida because their values for the first six weeks were so far above the others that no meaning could have been discerned.)

I would like to say that have a clearly marked decreasing trend in numbers of new cases, I would very much like to say that.
However, I cannot say any such thing because something is obviously amiss in Michigan and Pennsylvania for the last three weeks.

At the start of 2021, Georgia had almost 70,000 new cases per week ; now, that number has dropped to around 10,000 new cases per week.

At the start of 2021, Georgia had the most new cases, followed by Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Alabama, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and Michigan, with those latter four hovering around between 30,000 and 25,000 new cases per week.

Almost 90 days later, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Louisiana are all at 10,000 new cases or less per week.

Pennsylvania, however, is up to 25,000 new cases per week!

Michigan is even worse, at more than 30,000 new cases per week!

I asked my ex and he spoke of sports games causing their rise in numbers.

What craziness.

So, what are my holiday travel plans?

Zero, zip, zilch.

I'll be staying in town this coming weekend and minding my 3 w's.

I'm going to the Savannah VA Center shortly for my second dose of the Pfizer vaccine, then I'm going to treat myself to a lunch I don't have to cook.

I look forward to being able to dine with fully vaccinated friends and family by the end of April; by that time, my body will have had the two to four weeks required to generate the antibodies needed to protect me from death by coughing, i.e., development of severe COVID if I should become infected by the coronavirus.

Hence, my continued attention to the 3 w's.

(smile)

Oh, for those wondering about some data points being missing for the past few weeks, do not fret that I have been ill and unable to obtain data.

I have decided to only collect data on Mondays henceforth.

I had been collecting on Mondays and Thursdays, but once weekly is all I can abide to look at these numbers.

Truly.

And now, time to head off for my appointment!

10 percent done, just 60 percent to go

I realize that I have been holding my breath, figuratively, for almost a year, in fear of hearing that a loved one has developed COVID, in fear that they might die.

That is no way to live, but my mind is stuck on that scenario playing out.

Now, I breathe a sigh of relief every time I find out someone I know has received the vaccine...

then I find out they think they've received a virus-killing cloak that will shield them and make them impervious to harm.

Sigh.

They're ready to go paint the town red, hoping from bar to bar!

Happy St. Patrick's Day, y'all!!!

It doesn't help that the looney toons that run the new Plant Riverside District are planning a big party, hoping for beer-guzzling guests galore, whether local or not, come one, come all and let's have a good ol' fashioned superspreader event!

It's not even like the numbers of new infections has gotten to zero.

Not hardly.

I caught the news yesterday and here's the scary sight that awaited.

Almost 1500 new cases per day for seven of the last ten days.

And yet, folks are ready to take a break from the pandemic, put on some green beaded necklaces and a shamrock pin and pretend it's 2019 again.

Oh, I wish I could...

but backward in time is not the direction allowed in this universe.

We can only move forward, ever forward, in a world still staggering through a pandemic.

Sigh.

Here I wait for my turn to receive one of the three vaccines approved for emergency use by the FDA, sighing in relief every time someone I know steps up and gets their series of shots - more and more often because someone who had an appointment welshed on it, leaving a dose of life-saving vaccine to be thrown out if not placed into a willing arm.

Sigh.

The next thing I know, the newly inoculated one starts making plans to do this and do that and forget about the mask and hey, let's have a big party!

Honestly, do these vaccines not come with reading material so the one with the shot in the arm has a clue what it means for them?

Either no reading matter is given or no time is taken to read it.

Almost unanimously, the inoculated one believes the vaccine kills the coronavirus.

Sigh.

So, I explain as Dr. Fauci did at the Town Hall Zoom last week that the vaccine prevents the person from developing COVID - COronaVirus Infectious Disease - if they become infected by the SARS-CoV-2 novel coronavirus.

Period.

That's the whole point of the vaccine: to keep the inoculated one from developing the life-threatening disease.

Period.

The vaccine does NOT kill the virus, nor does it keep the inoculated person from spreading the virus to people who have not yet had the vaccine.

The vaccine keeps the inoculated one from developing the life-threatening disease.

Period.

Moreover, those inoculated need to wait a minimum of 14 days, and preferably 28 days, to allow their body time to build up a good supply of the antibody needed to prevent the disease from occurring. 

That means no carousing with hooligans, doing Jello shots and whatnot, immediately after that second vaccination takes place.

The inoculated one needs to wait at least two weeks - there's that number again - for their body to manufacture what's needed from the instructions in the vaccine molecules.

The inoculated one needs to eat plenty of protein - to give their body plenty of amino acids to build with - as well as get plenty of sleep, as that is when the body is able to build complex molecules without the boy's owner interfering.

Seriously.

Meanwhile, the inoculated one still needs to follow the Three W's: Wear their mask, Watch their distance, Wash their hands.

The CDC has posted new guidelines for those who have been fully vaccinated, guidelines which allow those so inoculated to gather in groups with others who have received the full vaccine series.

To date, the United States has thirty-four million people who fit that description.

That's roughly ten percent of the population.

To reach herd immunity status, at least seventy percent of the population needs to be fully vaccinated.

That means we have another sixty percent of the American population that needs to be rendered immune from COVID.

Roughly, that's another two hundred million people that need to step up for the good of this country and the good of the world to get vaccinated.

I'm ready to do my part...

can I please get an appointment for the vaccine?

reminder: no new cases is the goal

The United States of America has a log way to go to reach that point...

but there is good news.

Now that the elections are done, and holiday travel has ceased, numbers of new cases are on the decline.

Hallelujah!

Consider where the 7-day sums of new cases of COVID-plagued people were at the beginning of December compared to this date in January.

Looking at the lefthand area of the graph, post-Thanksgiving had Texas in the lead, then Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida.

Tennessee was briefly ahead of Georgia - until that run-off election nonsense - with Oklahoma, Alabama, and Louisiana clustered together at the bottom.

Mind, 'clustered together at the bottom' still meant they had more than 20,000 new cases per week, which means almost 3,000 new cases daily.

I also want to point out that around the middle of December, there were several states that all had 70,000 to 80,000 new cases over a week's time. Those states were Texas, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Tennessee. 

Texas and Florida continued to reach new heights in terms of folks infected by SARS-CoV-2, only showing a decline in the last three weeks.

(The same trend is found for California, though that state's data has been omitted. With weekly sums of new cases at almost 300,000 - yes, that's right, more than 40,000 people per day infected by the coronavirus - its data curve so skews the range that the trends of the other states cannot be determined.)

So, now, more than two weeks after the holidays, and more than two weeks after the conclusion of the Senate race in the Peach State, what can be said of this data?

Well, for starters, all of the curves are showing a decline for the past two weeks.

That is very good news.

It is especially good news considering that the two-part vaccination against the coronavirus is estimated to go well into the summer months.

That means we all need to continue wearing clean masks, frequently washing our hands, and walking our pack of alligators when out in public.

Sigh.

After all, even though the numbers of new cases has declined, they are still ludicrous in several states.

I will be avoiding Texas (still more than 120,000 new infections per week), Florida (still around 80,000 newly sick with COVID per week), and California (more than 150,000 new folks that didn't follow the three simple rules).

As for Georgia, which still has almost 50,000 new cases per week - which means more than 7,000 new ones daily - I'm hoping for the best, especially as it's my state of residence.

Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Alabama, and Oklahoma, please continue the declines...please.

Let's all try to be more like the fine example set by Michigan.

Sure, two months ago it was the third-highest in COVID infections, boasting 60,000 new cases per week.

But just look at it now: barely over 14,000 new cases per week, roughly one-fourth what it had at the start of December. 

Their governor is doing the right thing.

I challenge other governors to do the same.

You hear me, Brian Kemp?

263

That's how many lives in Savannah, Georgia, have been lost to COVID since the first person in the USA was diagnosed as infected by SARS-CoV-2 on January 21, 2020.

I have known two of those people, one from my extended family (Lee MacEwen), one from my classmates at Jenkins High (Janice Hammock Johnson).

In addition, I have known three people who were infected but recovered.

Now that the Moderna vaccine is available here, I know one person - Cathy MacGowan, a fellow professor - who has been fortunate enough to snag a shot when someone else canceled at the last minute.

The most surprising thing, to me, is that I have not known more people in those three categories, especially as rampant as the disease has been in the Peach State.

That dark blue line with the squares? That's the number of new cases per week for Georgia, seen here rising to greater heights than during the November election. That's because of the Senate run-off election, in which more people voted than had in the General Election.

Yes, that's right: more people voted for the two Senate seats than had for the President.

Because of that bit of lunacy, Georgia has had more than sixty thousand new cases per week for three weeks now. 

Yes, I said Georgia.

I would expect such shenanigans from Texas, the brown lead dog with the triangular spots; they just flat don't follow instructions.

I would even expect those exorbitant numbers from orange-laden Florida, home of theme parks and other tourist draws, during the holidays and regular days.

As for sunny California, I had to omit their data from this graph, else it would have so swamped out the numbers that nothing useful could have been discerned.

But, such ridiculous values from Georgia?

Then again, given the R-rated, ultraviolent, political ads during family and children's Christmas programs, I guess it was to be expected that the voters would turn out in droves, driven from their homes by the threat of being thought un-American if they did not go to the polls.

At least Michigan's dark green triangles and Tennessee's dark blue circles are both shifting in a continuous downward direction.

Surely Georgia will follow their lead, soon.

Mask up, y'all.

Wash your hands well and often.

Keep your alligators patrolling your perimeter.

We can do this, together.

Tonight, I will be participating in the honoring of those who have died from COVID.

I'll be standing on my porch, light on at 5:30 PM, ringing every bell I own.

I already have them at the door, waiting to be sounded.

Now, though, I need to do laundry, then go to the grocery store.

Chores still need to be done, maintaining the groove, pandemic or not.

In a way, that's reassuring.

pandemic in usa, in review

 

For these three graphs, I have plotted data I gathered from various DPH sites between May 20th and this penultimate day of 2020, for the ten states I monitor.

This first graph contains the total number of people who had COVID over that time span.

As can be seen, that sunny yellow of California has been leading the nation for the entire seven months.

Texas and Florida, sporting purple-brown and deep orange, were lagging until the start of summer but have nearly caught up with the West Coast a time or two.

Georgia's dark blue line had been running a distant fourth place with no contenders until early voting began for the 2020 General Election in mid-October.

Within two weeks, Pennsylvania (light blue), Tennessee (purple-blue), and Michigan (dark green), had caught up, all now having more than half a million people who have been infected by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus.

(My hypothesis is that Georgia will again tower over them as the run-off election here takes its toll on people's health in the coming weeks.)

Alabama (light green), Louisiana (black), and Oklahoma (yellow-orange) are trailing the pack, but don't be fooled: each of them is still a heavyweight.

Alabama leads the charge with more than 350,000 infected people; Oklahoma is giving its best to catch up, with more than 280,000 having added COVID to their medical records.

For those interested in such things, my ten states have a whopping total of more than 8,358,000, representing almost half of the total cases in the entire USA.

That's pretty sobering news.

 

Looking at the rates of infection per 100,000 people is certainly not reassuring that the nation is heading in a better direction.

Remember, the goal is no new cases, and we have not even gotten past the first wave yet in this pandemic.

So, what do the rate curves tell us?

These ten states had less than 1 person per 100,000 that was infected by the coronavirus in the middle of May.

Then, from the middle of June to the first week of August, the rates climbed exponentially toward 3 people infected per 100,000 for all except Michigan and Pennsylvania.

There followed a period of the states maintaining that higher infection rate...

until the onset of early voting for the 2020 General Election.

Another exponential rise followed, one which has affected all ten of my states, one which has continued up to year's end.

The black line of Louisiana held dominance until that second rise; Tennessee has far outstripped it now, with Oklahoma and Alabama vying for second.

Tennessee, home of several people I know and love, will soon have 9 people infected for every 100,000 that live there.

Pennsylvania, seemingly bringing up the bottom, is no slouch, having 5 people infected for every 100,000 citizens.

So, what good news might there be?

The seven-day sums of new infections are starting to decrease, somewhat.

There have been peaks and dips for the most part, with those dips following two weeks after the close of the General Election and two weeks after the Thanksgiving holiday.

Only Georgia is having rising numbers of those newly infected.

No surprise there.

I will be so glad when this run-off is done, though I expect another round of folks contesting the results.

Hopefully, the new strain of the virus will still be susceptible to one or more of the vaccines which have been created and have begun making the rounds.

What is that poem I love about hope?

Oh, yes.

"Hope is the thing with feathers that perches in the soul

and sings the tune without the words

and never stops at all."

Thanks, Emily Dickinson.

waiting for december 14

Why that particular date?

Is that when I hope to have all my cards posted to near and far?

Well, no.

As I changed it up to sending Thanksgiving greetings, that is all done, except for the one going up to Canada.

Is that the last date for mailing off Christmas packages?

No, those dates would be December 15th for ground service, the 18th for first-class, and the 19th for priority.

Are you having the family gathering, perchance?

Um, no.

The pandemic is still a-foot and will no doubt linger through much of next year, if the people of the world don't get themselves into the proper mindset.

I've just done my analysis of the COVID data and I can't say I'm happy about it.

Of my ten states, two of them (California and Texas) have surpassed the million mark for people infected by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus.

One more - Florida - should attain that dubious 'honor' by week's end.

Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Oklahoma have had their numbers skyrocket.

Why has that happened?

Well, as I said at the start of this month, early voting for this latest round of elections was quite detrimental to the health of American citizens.

Election Day, and the brouhaha that has followed and continues, hurt even more.

That's why December 14 is so important.

That's when the Electoral College finalizes all results, certifying who the 'winner' is for the presidency.

Sadly, for Georgia the madness continues into the new year for run-off elections for lesser seats, meaning the vitriolic political ads will be marring our holiday specials on television.

Doesn't it seem like the parties would call a truce?

Ack.

So, back to the effect of politics on infection rates, and what better way to do that than with graphs?

The good news is this: the numbers have started dropping, now that we are four weeks past Election Day.

Here, the seven-day sums of new COVID infections 

is graphed versus time, from November 3 to today, for my ten states.

The numbers are lowest on Election Day, gradually rising (due to early voting lines and people close together), then taking off at that magical two-week mark, then starting to taper off and decrease during this past week.

To truly appreciate the madness that was evinced by folks insisting on standing cheek to jowl in line to vote, keep in mind that the above is the cropped view of this one, which has a two-month time span.

EVERY STATE EXPERIENCED AN INCREASE IN NUMBER OF COVID CASES.

All of that could have been avoided if folks would have used absentee ballots.

All of it.

This graph has the weekly sums of new infection for the month of September.

All of the states I follow were showing a month-long decline in those values, except for Texas, which eventually fell into line by month's end.

That's where things stood in the beginning on that middle graph, for the first two weeks of October.

Then early voting began and the peaks attained were higher than those in the summer.

What about the rates of infection?

How about normalizing the data for COVID cases per 100,000 people in each state?

Sure, I have that right here, covering the two months' worth of data for October and November.

Appalling, isn't it?

Louisiana has had the highest rate since I started tracking this data in May.

Now, Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Alabama have surpassed it - surpassed it, not just caught up.

Michigan's rate has tripled and Pennsylvania's has doubled.

Let's hope that the quelling of the political turmoil will settle things back down.

Our lives depend on it... literally.

For those who may have forgotten the legend I use to distinguish the data sets, here it is.

Georgia is dark blue with squares.

Florida is dark orange with diamonds.

California is sunny yellow with upside-down triangles.

Michigan is dark green with triangles.

Texas is dark purple-brown with forward arrowheads.

Pennsylvania is light blue with reverse arrowheads.

Alabama is light green with squares.

Tennessee is purple with circles.

Louisiana is black with little bow ties.

Oklahoma is orange-yellow with hash marks.

Okay, I'm going to go do something positive: I'm watching the first-ever "Disney Holiday Sing-Along".

And I'm sharing the experience 'with' my first niece and my nephew Michael and my friend Sandy....

and I just may be singing loudly enough that they'll hear me, too.

(smile)

Please, folks, keep wearing masks.

Please keep an alligator between you and folks who don't live with you.

Please wash your hands after you touch anything others might have handled.

Let's try to make the world better, starting here, starting now.

the show must go on, says drew

Apparently, the powers that be at the television station told him to go for it.

Drew Carey said he'd be back live "when there's a vaccine" when he'd done the night version, with "The Neighborhood" stars, a few weeks ago.

I knew it wasn't a repeat the moment I saw Drew's gray-flecked beard.

I noticed that facial hair at the special "The Price Is Right At Night" show.

My guess is that it's been more than two weeks and he was COVID-free, so he agreed to continue shooting episodes.

The wheel is sanitized between spinners.

Only one person comes out at a time and no one is allowed to be any closer to Drew than twelve feet.

Good for him for insisting on that!

I'm sure his congregation of alligators have their jaws snApPiNg to keep those young contestants at bay.

After all, the people in the United States of America with the most outrageous number of cases of infection from the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus are those between the ages of 18 and 40.

That has been the case since June, the time of clothes being shed and group outings to the bars and beaches.

But I already talked of that, didn't I?

And I did so in June.

One note before I prepare for lunch with my first niece: this is not my graph.

I thank the state of Louisiana for preparing this colorful picture of their data.

I want to note that Michigan, Alabama, and Oklahoma have data that confirms my theory and the data trend shown by Louisiana.

I really take no joy in being right about this.

Y'all, please mask up.

Please wash your hands.

Please travel with alligators.

Please.

word up, tell me what's the word?

Please notice the date - October 6 - and please also notice one more thing.

Although this resembles the "new cases" graphs I've posted, this data is not for several states in the USA.

It's for several states in India.

This brought home to me that ours is not the only country dealing with a myriad of responses to the SARS-CoV-2 virus over a period of time.

This is why it has been so difficult to convince people worldwide to treat COVID as a serious issue: it may not have yet affected their part of the country or of a state.

 

 

These are the latest curves for our home-grown pandemic.

Yes, I mean home-grown, as we have had the opportunity to quell the surge, but have instead embraced the rush upward.

Once the first cases were found in California and New York, a half-hearted effort to stop the disease was met with resistance nationwide... and the virus marched on, unchecked, spread by bare faces and dirty hands and tainted breath.

It was mindless of religious faith or political persuasion, not heeding ethnic backgrounds or gender differences or even rainbow affiliation, discounting relevance of financial wealth or job title.

After all, it's a virus.

It doesn't play favorites.

It doesn't play.

The whole function of a virus is to make more of itself and to use its host's ribosomes to do so... and to use its host to spread to other hosts.

The virus depends on its host being in close proximity to other potential hosts, whether at the beach or theme parks as it was in the summer, or up in areas rich in fall foliage.

In this graph of rates of infection per 100000 people, there are three trends present.

There are those that are beginning to plateau (LA, FL, GA, CA, TX), those leading into an intense rise (MI, PA, TN) and those sharply increasing and heading for the moon (AL, OK).

Those latter five are at a little higher latitude, so the trees were quite lovely a month ago... and their rates, as well as their weekly sums of new cases, have been rising for the last two weeks.

Yes, there's that magic number: two weeks.

No surprise there.

Sigh.

Again, we need not feel singled out.

Every country, on every continent, has been dealing with this malevolent virus, some for a few months longer than we in the USA.

Europe is currently experiencing a second wave that has been much more deadly than the first and has posted daily infection rates that are triple what was perceived as so terrible during their first encounter with this coronavirus.

COVID-19 is not only a serious problem in the United States.

COVID-19 is not a disease which will be cured by a change in leadership, in this nation or elsewhere.

COVID-19 requires all humans to make a concerted effort to eradicate it, regardless of where they live or what they believe or how they self-identify.

COVID-19 requires each one of us to take responsibility for our actions, to lead our children by example to be mindful of causing no harm to others.

Colder temperatures mean more people inside, in spaces with recirculated air, whether at a grocery store or at work or in school.

It is vital that each one of us makes the effort to have the health of others always in mind, wearing our face coverings, washing our hands, not touching surfaces.

Remember, the goal continues to be no new cases...

As Cameo would say, "Word Up!"

Here's my take on that song.

 

"Yo everybody all around the world
Got a true thing to show you
So tell all the boys and girls

Tell India, Brazil and all of Europe too
COVID madness looms around us
though we know just what to do

Wear your mask everywhere to show you care
Maintain social distance even if others look and stare
Wash your hands, wash your hands, wash your hands but not quick
Got to get you up some lather cause that's the real trick
Word up
everybody say
Wash those hands for twenty seconds and do not touch your face
Word up
it's the code
word
Let's all try to do better - please tell me that I'm heard

That virus doesn't care if you think you're fly
It cares naught about religion and here's the reason why
A virus has no politics, ethnicity, or gender
It's an alien invader, that's what you gotta remember

With no vaccine we ain't gonna lose it
Whichever way we turn it'll already be there
We don't have the time for bureaucratic nonsense
No nonsense, no nonsense, no nonsense for me, people
Come on won't you tell me
what's the word
Word up
everybody say
When you hear the call please say you'll get it underway"
 

'Til next we meet...

please take care of each other.

Not just those you know and love, but also the strangers you haven't met yet.

Thanks.