Wednesday, April 15, 2020

friends with ... who?

"Georgia’s confirmed-case count for COVID-19 rose to 14,987 by noon Wednesday, April 15, according to the Georgia Department of Public Health. Hospitalizations rose to 2,922, and deaths rose to 552.
Tuesday’s statewide count was 14,578 confirmed cases, 2,858 people hospitalized and 524 COVID-19-related deaths.
As of noon Wednesday, there were 310 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and eight deaths reported in the eight-county Coastal Health District.
Three new cases were confirmed in Chatham County, bringing the county’s total to 160."

Of course, I had to share this with someone not living here, right?
Someone who would appreciate the importance of the numbers, right?
Someone who had maybe been on my mind earlier, right?
There are no coincidences.

So, I sent the above photo to Jeff, up in St. Helen, Michigan.

him:
Going to be a loooong time before we can get back to what we used to call normal.
And it still won't be normal.

me:
Yes, sadly.
Saw on the news a woman in Michigan complaining about hair salons still being closed because she needed her hair dyed.
Crazy.

him:
Yeah all kinds of people are dying and Detroit and the privileged up here are whining because they can't get a tee time.

me:
Just craziness.
Christina had the nerve to complain on fb about not getting her hair done and i got onto her about it.

him:
There was an article on my news feed that I didn't read, about push back from barber shops and hair salons about about whether or not they were essential too.

me:
I think if they can do their job from 6 feet away, then fine.
Why would they want to endanger others like that?
Really ticks me off.
Then there's Reggie in NYC bitching about TX telling her that she would have to quarantine two weeks after her flight.
I told her not to endanger her dad.

him:
Her dad's been at death's door since we've known him.
She should know better.

me:
Damn straight.
Hey, did you ever try that new link to the Patti Smith film?
[That was the PFS' special rock-doc on Easter Sunday night.]

him:
Wait, Reggie actually chats with you now?

me:
No, just on fb.
I have not physically spoken with Reg for many, many years.
[She dropped contact with us after I loaned her about 1400 dollars to get her car out impound and her out of a jam in NYC.
I only had the money because Mama had died and her insurance policy paid me about $3000.
I think Regina Coveney may have repaid me about twenty bucks.]

him:
Right, right but I figured that even Facebook would be off limits for her.

me:
Apparently not.
She popped up commenting on one of Marguerite's posts a couple of years ago so i got her to friend me then.

him:
Haven't watched that film yet.
Saw something on her a few weeks ago, where an amateur choir rearranged her song People Have The Power, and they sang it for her.

me:
Wow.
That had to be super cool. :-)
Jim Reed says hi btw and why don't you join fb.

him:
I never saw her on "Orange Is the New Black".
Or at least, I didn't recognize her.

me:
Her hair was pretty frizzed out.
Her character was named Snack or something like that?
Was on several episodes, getting in other shows too.

him:
What just hit me is the realization that you must be friends on Facebook with Marguerite too.
That's kind of shocking.

me:
She tagged me and i hit yes.
She has actually gotten sensible since she had kids.
You know, she named her son for Sam, for his middle name.

him:
I guess I did not know that.
Wow.
The funny thing is, like everyone else in Savannah radio, Sam didn't have many good things to say about her either!
You remember how I used to rant about the crap she pulled at Kix 96 1/2.

me:
Oh, i well recall how bad she was at remotes and what a spoiled brat she was.
Again, nothing like being a mom for more than a decade to make someone adult.
[Yes, that link I threw in is about my BFF.
Here's why.
Years ago, on a visit to her new house in Hiram, I was struck by how grown-up my college friend had become.
She took care of the house, the kids, the bills, the schedule with sheer aplomb.
When I commented to her about it, her reply shook me.
"Well, I realized that if I didn't do it, no one would."
Spoken like a true parent, being an adult.
So, that's why I had to include the link to Sandra Lynn Voelker.]

Now, if you'll pardon me, I have statistics to view.
I'm building a graph, looking for the curve-flattening sign that will let me know when we are approaching the other side of the COVID-19 pandemic on these shores, while still keeping up with Italy and their progress.
I'm watching the numbers for Georgia and Michigan, naturally, as well as California and Texas and New York and Florida, where I also have friends riding this same wave of sickness and death.
As I told Jeff, I'm mentally trying to regard this the same way I do hurricanes.
Regular, but limited, exposure to genuine news sites,
to gain true data, not hype.
So, every day, usually in the evening, I check the visual guide from BBC.
Sometimes, I also check the CDC site, though it lags about 24 hours behind the other.
These two pictorials are actually two days old, referencing data for 13 April.
Today's numbers are not yet posted.
Here's my graph, for data posted by the two sites from 28 March through 13 April.
The X axis is days elapsed, with 28 March as Day 1.
The Y axis is number of confirmed cases.
The dark blue is the data for Georgia.
Michigan is in dark green, riding very close the yellow line of California, the Gold Rush state.
That orange line represents Florida.
(That's one inside joke and a pun, y'all.)
One thing I love about graphs:
the message comes across at a glance.
No one needs to be math conscious or science savvy to understand the trends here.
All four lines are clearly upward bound.
Not a curve anywhere going downward.
Here's the scary thing about all of that: California has been in shelter-in-place mode since the second week of March.
That's two weeks longer than for Georgia, Florida, and Michigan.
That means the rest of us have at least two more weeks, probably much longer, before we can think about "life as usual".
My money is on "much longer".
Easter was this past Sunday.
I'm expecting a huge spike in cases in two weeks, as that's how long it takes for exposure to SARS-CoV-2 to escalate into COVID-19.
Why do I expect that spike?
The President said he'd "like to see all the churches full" for that religious celebration.
Accordingly, quite a few churches in the USA are going to be open, as that is one of the biggest money-generating days for those in the Christian and Catholic faiths.
It's as if no one has learned anything from the lessons a month ago in Italy, South Korea, and Iran about the effects of religious gatherings on spreading the coronavirus.
Asbury Memorial United Methodist Church was not open for business on Easter.
Reverend Billy Hester is intent on keeping all of his parishioners safe.
We had our service online.
i thank You, God.

2 comments:

faustina said...

As of today, April 22, 2020, the number of confirmed cases in the entire state of Georgia is 20,740.
The number of confirmed case in Los Angeles, California, is 15,153.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52385558

That's in ONE CITY in that state.
The entire state of California has almost 34,000.
That means that ALMOST HALF of the cases are in that ONE CITY.
https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/PublishingImages/COVID-19/CA_COVID-19_ByTheNumbers%20April%2021%202020.png

San Diego, just an hour south, has only a fifth of that.
San Francisco, north of LA, has about one-tenth as many.
https://projects.sfchronicle.com/2020/coronavirus-map/

Why don't San Francisco and San Diego have as many cases as Los Angeles?
Good CITY leaders.
They have smart politicians who follow the science.
They have politicians who learn from the mistakes of others, so as not to repeat those mistakes.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52272651

I am so grateful to have Mayor Van Johnson in Savannah and Mayor Shirley Sessions in Tybee, looking out for us.

faustina said...

One more thing about these numbers.

The number of COVID-19 DEATHS in New York state is 19,118.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Coronavirus-live-updates-news-bay-area-15192855.php

That's almost the same as the number of INFECTED in the state of Georgia.
Wow.
How very sad.