Monday, July 27, 2020

why it won't be in a few weeks


THIS is the reason why I won't be able to meet with mi tres amigas anytime soon.
The state I call home has far too many science-illiterates running around.
THIS is proof positive of that allegation.
I don't know why I hadn't noticed it last week.
If my ex had not texted to let me know that the Michigan governor was possibly going to shut down their gyms and bars again and "put them back to Phase 3", I might not have thought to concentrate on that state quite as much as I did on tonight's data-gathering mission.
So, as I was collecting numbers from the eleven different sites I use, I was doing more than simply transcribing the values into my three data tables.
I was comparing the data of one state to that of another...
watching how closely Alabama was following Georgia's trend...
noting the devastation that Oklahoma is having post their rally for the President...
seeing that Michigan and Pennsylvania truly were the only two of the ten that even seemed to be trying to control the spread of the coronavirus.
So, after seeing the numbers - and I mean seeing the numbers - and comparing the data trends in his state and in my state, I was aghast.
Michigan is definitely doing something right, and Georgia is not.
Science bears that out.
Math bears that out.
The graph bears that out, in glorious color.
Michigan is definitely doing something right, and Georgia is not.
This graph has the total number of COVID-19 infections versus the days of July 2020.
In other words, this graph has only the most recent data for the four states depicted.
As noted elsewhere, golden California and orange Florida are running this race far faster than others - not that that is a desirable thing to do.
Like with golf and putt-putt, the goal is to have the lowest total.
Still, as remarkable as their climb has been, Georgia is the true contender.
Georgia, with almost 80,000 cases, on the first day of July, had about the same number of infected people as Michigan had.
Let me allow that to sink in for a moment.
On July 1, the data for Georgia and Michigan was comparable.
That date was the Wednesday before Independence Day, celebrated nationwide, here in Georgia as much as there in Michigan.
Then, when I'd looked at the event from the vantage point of two weeks later, I had not chosen to share the graphs of total infections versus date, as I'd already shared the rate data and the 7-day totals.
So, I'd missed that difference between the data for the dark blue Georgia and the dark green Michigan, lost as it was in the data of so many other states.
Here, in this less cluttered graph, the difference is lit up like Christmas.
Michigan is definitely doing something right, and Georgia is not.
How else to explain why Michigan's total still has not hit 100,000 infected people, but Georgia's population has more than doubled its number of cases to 170,000.
Michigan is definitely doing something right, and Georgia is not.
I don't want to hear about the beaches and the state parks and the hot summer weather...
both states have those in abundance.
In fact, I'd be willing to bet that Michigan has more coastline than Georgia.
Both states began the month with the same number of cases, but Georgia has now doubled its number of COVID cases.
That cannot be refuted.
Michigan is definitely doing something right, and Georgia is not.
As my ex said when I showed him this graph, "I have a sinking feeling that unless every state adopts the same strategies at the same time lines, we're going to be here for a while."
Exactly.
That has been the issue and will continue to be the issue.
Everybody wants to do it their way, not as a team.

I am so thankful Jeff texted something about his governor tonight.

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