the variants of fall

Between September 1st and October 1st of 2020, four mutations of the SARS-CoV-2 novel coronavirus were determined to be the causes of the increases in COVID infections and deaths and became classified as variants of concern.

The work was done by researchers investigating changes in the structure of the spike protein, the component of the virus by which it gains access to our cells.

The first mutation of concern was the Beta variant, also known as B.1.351, was first detected in South Africa, where it rapidly became the dominant strain.

By week's end, another mutation of concern, the Delta variant (or B.1.617.2) was the one rapidly filling India's hospitals with dying patients.

By the middle of September, the Alpha variant (or B.1.1.7) showed up as the dominant mutation and cause of increased, and more deadly, COVID cases in the United Kingdom.

Then, in October 2020, Japan was the prey for a fourth mutation of concern, the Gamma variant (also known as P.1).

What was it about these variants that had enhanced the virus's ability to spread more quickly and result in more deadly and serious onsets of COVID?

Among the changes were these three: K417N, E484K, N501Y.

Stay with me, okay?

The numbers refer to placement in the spike protein's primary structure, which is the order of amino acids in the molecule.

The first letter is the amino acid which had been there; the last letter refers to the amino acid now substituted into its place.

Each amino acid has characteristics (acidity, basicity, hydrophilic, hydrophobic, ionic), based on the identity of its unique side chain, that affect its interactions with other portions of the molecule, leading to the tertiary structure of the protein.

That tertiary structure governs how the protein interacts with cells in the human body.

Now, back to those three mutations.

In all three instances, the amino acid is changed into one with very different side chains, making it very different in chemical character at those sites.

So, why would that matter?

All three changes are in the receptor binding site on the spike protein.

Let me emphasize the key message.

All three changes are in the receptor binding site on the spike protein.

That's what makes these variants so scary.

These mutations on this protein allow the virus faster access to the replicating sites in our cells, allowing faster build-up of the invading virus, which enables faster progression of the virus from infection to lung-killing status.

That means someone who has been infected by any one of these variants of concern will go from asymptomatic to full-blown COVID in much less than the two weeks standard.

Remember this diagram of the need for keeping a congregation of alligators always at hand?

That topmost line shows that a single infected person, not practicing social distancing, can infect two or more withing 5 days of falling victim to the original SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Those 2, in turn, infect another 2 each in five days, with the spread growing exponentially as the days go on.

With these four new variants of the virus, a single infected person can now come into contact, and infect, five people instead of the standard two people, leading to greatly increased numbers of people hospitalized and dying as each of those five in turn infect five others.

Let me break it down this way.

Before, the numbers increased in this pattern every five days: 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, with 64 people within a month's time.

Now, the numbers increase at a faster pace every five days: 1, 5, 25, 125, 625, 3125, ending up as 15626 within a month.

That's terrifying.

So is this table.

This is only the data acquired by studying the primary structure of the spike protein in those who tested positive for COVID.

The first vertical bar is for the first two weeks in May of this year and shows that the vast majority of infections that month were from the Alpha variant (though it is important to note that virus was not the only one causing COVID in those patients).

Each bar represents data collected during a subsequent two-week span.

All data reflects a variety of coronavirus variants are at fault for the COVID infections.

However, the highlighted dark-orange areas are for those people who had the Delta variant, and those are the dominant strain, even surpassing the percentage of cases attributed to the Alpha variant in the beginning of May.

 

Savannah has already resumed mask-wearing by all in public places.

Yes, even those fully vaccinated are to wear masks.

I urge everyone to do so.

And, if not yet vaccinated, please get that shot.

The United States needs to reach herd immunity, and that won't happen without more people stepping up to serve the needs of their country.

Please.